This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that,
with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the
crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on
the following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics and
policymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in the
financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of a
crisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can
predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy's sensitivity
to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic
growth and no true recessions.